Could the whole of Nevada’s future come down to one race in 2010?  That might not be far from the truth with the battle for Senate District 5 between Joyce Woodhouse and Michael Roberson.  If you’re like me, you might not believe that a state senate race could be so important.  Wait until you hear about this one.

The party that controls the Nevada Legislature after this election cycle will decide the whole redistricting of the state in 2011.  Gerrymandering is the process of redistricting to ensure that your party wins as many seats as possible every year.  This year, as with most, the majority of the races are already decided because of redistricting from the last go around.

If Democrats are able to pick up two more seats in the senate, they will have a super-majority in both houses of the Nevada Legislature.  That would give them full control over the process of redistricting.  If that happens, the Democrats will have a solid political advantage for at least the next ten years, and likely for much longer.

There are four notable senate races this year.  Two of the seats are open, one because of a surprise loss by incumbent Republican Sen. Dennis Nolan in the primaries to newbie Elizabeth Halseth.  Here’s the lineup:

1. Senate District 8: Incumbent Republican Barbara Cegavske vs. Democrat Tammy Peterson. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent other.

2. Senate District 5: Incumbent Democrat Joyce Woodhouse vs. Republican Michael Roberson. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

3. Senate District 9: Democrat Benny Yerushalmi vs. Republican Elizabeth Halseth. Registered voters: 41 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 22 percent other.

4. Senate District 12: Republican Assemblyman Joe Hardy vs. Democrat Aaron Ford. Registered voters: 39 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, 21 percent other.

Conservative commentator Chuck Muth points out that Republican incumbent Sen. Barbara Cegavske and Elizabeth Halseth are the two most likely to lose to Democrats.  That’s the two seats Democrats can realistically pick up.

The more difficult question is can the Democrats keep their seat in District 5 with Joyce Woodhouse?  Some suggest she’s vulnerable.  However, her party has a registration advantage in that district.  No doubt she’ll be working hard to solidify her base and get them to the poles.

Senator Woodhouse served as an educator here in Nevada before taking on responsibilities as our representative.  Her background and commitment to Nevada schools is appealing for those supporting education.

Michael Roberson moved to Nevada in 2000.  He is an attorney with the law firm Kolesar & Leatham.  He has his own plans for education.  He wants to “cut the education bureaucracy” and expand private charter schools.

So this is it!  This is one of those races that you should focus on.  Students and members of the community at large should pitch in and help whatever side they believe in, because there is a lot at stake here.

To find what district you live in, or to register to vote, go here.  The registration deadline is October 2nd.  Don’t procrastinate.

March 1st passes as candidates in Nevada make their bids official. The talk of the town is the governor’s race. The incumbent governor Jim Gibbons has been all over the news lately, and his poll numbers are rising.

The Nevada Primaries will be on June 8th, 2010. The final fate of the Republican candidates will be decided. Brian Sandoval leads that race and the general so far.

Rory Reid has some obstacles. The stigma of his father’s name, and the impatience of the American People, have the Clark County Commissioner trailing in most polling so far.

What will these two candidates mean for Nevada? No one can say for sure how either of them will act in any given situation. Nevada faces a 3 to 5 billion dollar budget shortfall next year. This year’s was only around 900 million. Imagine the controversy next year will bring.

Thus far, Brian Sandoval refuses to sign the tax pledge (which would restrict him to never raising taxes under any circumstances). He said it would not be smart.

Brian Sandoval appears to be a moderate, and I think he is. However, Brian will have to deal with his party in this state. I can assure you that his party in Nevada is most recently more on the ultra conservative side. Members of his own party are already on the attack, pointing to Sandoval’s history.

His stance as Attorney General in Nevada wherein he demanded that the state legislature fund education or violate their duties under the state constitution has many conservatives in an uproar.

Oddly enough, this issue of the constitutional requirement to fund education was not brought up this go around. Its as if the decision in Guinn vs. Legislature never happened.

Rory Reid has publicly supported making education a top priority. Now, the public must deal with the question of who will be more prepared to face next year’s massive budget deficit. Do we want a “no-taxes” guy in there? Or do we want to slash funding to our most basic services of education, and public heath & safety by 30-40%?

Come join the Capitol Club for our next meeting at the Henderson Campus, room C-224, Sunday, February 7th, at 5PM.

Please note the room and building change.  We have secured a nice conference room for our meetings this semester.

The Capitol Club will be helping to raise awareness of the issue of budget shortfalls and how that affects CSN students.  A future event will be in the works and discussed at this meeting.  More to come on this.

The Capitol Club is also getting involved in encouraging students to register to vote, issue awareness, and political involvement.

Come join us and help make a difference!

Dr. Joe Heck paid a visit to the Henderson CSN campus on 10/27/09 and gave a brief lecture to students and community members.

See the rest of the videos here, or watch them in High Definition on CSN Capitol Club’s Youtube channel, here.

The political pot continues to be stirred here at home in Nevada. John Guedry, touted as Republican’s best chance to reclaim 3rd District, (previously held by GOP, Jon Porter) is dropping out of the race. What is going on behind the scenes?

John Guedry

Dina Titus defeated Jon Porter in the 2008 election, with the help of a surging Democrat movement behind Barrack Obama, who led John McCain by some 10% margin in this District. Some political commentators have suggested that “any old fool” wearing the Democrat banner could have defeated Jon Porter, because of Obama’s popularity. Titus balks at any suggestion that anything other than her sheer political prowess and abilities won the hearts of the people.

She’ll have her chance to prove that next year. Her District is not exactly a traditional D-haven however. Look for a Democrat lead majority in the state assembly to beef up that District with some gerrymandering. In the meantime, Titus will have her hands full.

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Just scooped this.  Apparently Chuck Muth is going around saying that Jon Porter is “seriously talking about wanting to get into this race, after all.”  No official announcement yet.

Jon Porter

If Muth heard it from the source, it makes you wonder if Jon Porter wanted people to know about it, to test the waters and see if some polling would be done.  I wonder if he is not able to have polling done for himself in his current position.

Chuck Muth is running the “Dump Reid” PAC, which is under fire from Democrats for alleged violations of FEC regulations, including the use of Harry Reid’s name in the PAC.

CQ Politics quotes him as saying:

“He absolutely is talking to the folks at the senatorial committee and some money people,” to see if there is an appetite for his candidacy…

Here is more from Muth:

Former moderate GOP Rep. Jon Porter – who took himself out of the Harry Reid race last year in order to pursue a lucrative post-congressional career as fat-cat K-Street lobbyist – is reportedly sniffing around DC testing the waters for getting into the race after all. While at one time long ago a Porter candidacy might have cleared the field, now that there are at least four credible, viable GOP candidates in the race (or expected to be in the race) – Angle, Tarkanian, Amodei and Lowden – a Porter candidacy makes no sense whatsoever, especially since he’d be crushed in a statewide primary dominated by conservatives.

Looks like Chuck Kozak is just joining the race as well. Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, and state Sen. Mark Amodei are already in this race against Harry Reid. Jon Porter is probably a notch above the rest, though it looks like it might be a shake down. Republicans appear to be smelling blood.

Jon Porter has been nice to the Capitol Club, and to CSN. He often meets with students when we travel to Washington D.C. to share his experiences with politics. Best of luck Jon, if you decide.

Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Joe Heck

According to Las Vegas City Life’s Steve Sebelius, Dr. Joe Heck will be having a busy Thursday morning. At a private Las Vegas event scheduled for 8AM the Republican gubernatorial candidate will sign the Taxpayer Protection Pledge from Americans for Tax Reform.

Sitting (duck) Gov. Jim Gibbons took the same pledge as part of his anti-tax platform. This places Heck squarely at odds with Brian Sandoval who stated in an interview with The Reno Gazette-Journal’s Annjeanette Damon that signing such a pledge would “tie [his] hands.”

Sandoval’s statement drew an early opening salvo from Nevada arch-Conservative Chuck Muth who demanded that candidates “absolutely, positively need to “tie the hands” of elected officials by getting them to sign the Tax Pledge BEFORE they get elected.”

Clearly, Dr. Heck was listening. What that means for the candidate, his race or the state remains to be seen.

However one thing is abundantly clear: if Mike Montandon wants traction for his “New Nevada,” he needs to up his game, because this race is already starting to take shape, and if he waits too long there won’t be anywhere for him to fit.

Rory Reid can rest a little easier tonight, knowing that his only real adversary in the Democratic Primary is now taking a pass. Barbara Buckley officially announced that she will not run. She cited her ten-year-old son, Aiden, as the reason she is staying out.

Barbara Buckley

Save a surprise entry by Oscar Goodman, it should be smooth sailing for Rory Reid. Did the “Reid Machine” have anything to do with her decision not to run? Pure conjecture not worth delving into.

She did have a huge lead in polling and some considered her chances of winning the Democratic Primary to be a lock. Odd that she would not take the opportunity.

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With the passing of Labor Day, let the games begin. Our beloved Nevada politicians will indeed begin playing their political games, launching attack ads, and trying to muster support and most importantly money here in the Battle Born state.

Up for grabs, the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat stick out. Both races will include an incumbent. While neither seems extremely popular, Governor Gibbons probably has the most to fear, and should start thinking about what he is going to be doing in 2011. Who will try to lay siege on their positions? Let’s get started.

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